أثر سياسات سعر صرف الجنيه السوداني على أسعار المستهلك ومعدالت التضخم دراسة تطبيقية السودان خالل الفترة (1980-2014م

Abstract

ABSTRACT : The study dealt with the effect of Policies in the Sudanese pound exchange rate on consumer prices and inflation rates, an applied study in Sudan during the period 1980-2014. The study also aimed to analyze the silence and trend of the short and long-term relationship between the actual real exchange rate, consumer prices and inflation rates. The explanations for clarifying the effect of fluctuations in the actual real exchange rate, consumer prices and inflation rates. The problem of the study was represented in the continuous fluctuations of exchange rates affecting consumer prices and inflation rates. The study adopted a descriptive approach in view of the nature of the problem and the information available on it and discussed within the framework of the study. For the purpose of analyzing the time series, this requires testing the unit roots, the joint integration test, and the fluctuation test using the models (TARCH, EGARCH) The study reached the most important results of the existence of an integrative relationship between the study variables during the period (1980-2014). In addition, there was an impact of exchange rate fluctuations on changes in consumer prices and inflation rates, as well as the continuous decline in the Sudanese pound exchange rate by the International Monetary Fund, which led to the weakening of the Sudanese pound against foreign currencies, weakening the purchasing power, which increased the prices of imported goods, and this in turn was arranged. It has to increase the pressure on consumer prices. The study recommended that the central bank